Democratic
North Carolina › North Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina House District 23
Smith is very likely to win: Smith wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Smith (D)
99%
chance of winning
Roberson (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+20.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+10 to D+30
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Smith is very likely to win: Smith wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Smith (D)
96%
chance of winning
Roberson (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+19.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Brent Roberson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.09 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.14 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 87,550
- People per km²
- 20
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 18%
- White, no degree
- 32%of adults
- White 39%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 53%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
44,530 votes · D+12.9✓ Shelly Willingham (D)56.5%
Brent Roberson (R)43.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
45,223 two-party votes · D+12.6 · D+14.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.3%
Donald Trump (R)43.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
30,297 votes · D+8.8✓ Shelly Willingham (D)54.4%
James Crowell Proctor (R)45.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
74,058 votes · D+19.5✓ Shelly Willingham (D)58.7%
Claiborne Holtzman (R)39.6%
Abbie Lane (—)1.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
60,167 two-party votes · D+15.4 · D+10.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)57.7%
Donald Trump (R)42.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
72,816 two-party votes · D+22.8 · D+20.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)61.4%
Donald Trump (R)38.6%
Also on the ballot in North Carolina
Neighboring districts
HD-1Claude HarrisEd Goodwin99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-5Sam Davis IIIBill WardFlip riskFlip risk54%Rep.57%Dem. HD-8Gloristine BrownCathy Thorne Bynum>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-9Claire KempnerTimothy Reeder83%Rep.68%Rep. HD-24Dante PittmanBlake Boykin92%Dem.71%Dem. HD-25Lorenza WilkinsAllen ChesserD flipD flip62%Dem.76%Dem. HD-27Rodney PierceKenneth Bentley Jr.>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-79—Darren Armstrong>99%Rep.>99%Rep.