Democratic
North Carolina › North Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina House District 68
Willis is very likely to win: Willis wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Warriner (D)
3%
chance of winning
Willis (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+14.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Willis is clearly favored to win: Willis wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Warriner (D)
8%
chance of winning
Willis (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+13.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
David Willis
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.95 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.56 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.56 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 88,886
- People per km²
- 277
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 58%
- White, no degree
- 30%of adults
- White 70%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 8%
- Asian 9%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
54,097 votes · R+25.0✓ David Willis (R)62.5%
Cristal Robinson (D)37.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
55,469 two-party votes · R+21.0 · R+19.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.5%
Kamala Harris (D)39.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
24,883 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ David Willis (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
115,623 votes · R+26.0✓ David Willis (R)63.0%
Ericka L McKnight (D)37.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
51,526 two-party votes · R+20.4 · R+25.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.2%
Joe Biden (D)39.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
37,477 two-party votes · R+32.4 · R+34.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)33.8%