DemocraticIncumbent
James Roberson
- Experience
- State legislature
North Carolina › North Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina House District 39
Roberson is very likely to win: Roberson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Roberson (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Cordova (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+38.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+28 to D+50
- Partisan lean
- D+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Roberson is very likely to win: Roberson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Roberson (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Cordova (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+32.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+20 to D+45
- Partisan lean
- D+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.25 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 37.1 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+26: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 95,575
- People per km²
- 305
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 27%of adults
- White 41%
- Hispanic 21%
- Black 30%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
36,730 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ James Roberson (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
49,985 two-party votes · D+25.6 · D+27.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)62.8%
Donald Trump (R)37.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
30,818 votes · D+20.4✓ James A Roberson (D)60.2%
Greg Jones (R)39.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
83,566 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Darren Jackson (D)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
44,707 two-party votes · D+25.2 · D+20.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)62.6%
Donald Trump (R)37.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
34,371 two-party votes · D+19.3 · D+17.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)59.6%
Donald Trump (R)40.4%
Also on the ballot in North Carolina
Neighboring districts
HD-7Mark SpeedCory Thornton80%Rep.76%Rep. HD-25Lorenza WilkinsAllen ChesserD flipD flip62%Dem.76%Dem. HD-26L'Bertrice SolomonDonna McDowell White84%Rep.78%Rep. HD-33Monika Johnson-HostlerMatthew Orr>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-35Evonne HopkinsMike SchietzeltD flipD flip62%Dem.66%Dem. HD-38Abe Jones—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-66Sarah Crawford—>99%Dem.>99%Dem.