Democratic
North Carolina › North Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina House District 90
Kiger is very likely to win: Kiger wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Badgett (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Kiger (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+44.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+54 to R+35
- Partisan lean
- R+57
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Kiger is very likely to win: Kiger wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Badgett (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Kiger (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+52.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+65 to R+40
- Partisan lean
- R+57
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Dan Kiger
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.02 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.51 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+57: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 90,506
- People per km²
- 47
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 19%
- White, no degree
- 70%of adults
- White 83%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 3%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
45,793 votes · R+55.8✓ Sarah Stevens (R)77.9%
Ken Badgett (D)22.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
46,599 two-party votes · R+56.9 · R+55.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)78.5%
Kamala Harris (D)21.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
24,398 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Sarah Stevens (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
80,538 votes · R+49.1✓ Sarah Stevens (R)74.6%
Beth Shaw (D)25.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
55,742 two-party votes · R+56.2 · R+60.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)78.1%
Joe Biden (D)21.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
45,185 two-party votes · R+56.7 · R+58.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)78.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)21.7%