DemocraticIncumbent
Becky Carney
- Experience
- State legislature
North Carolina › North Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina House District 102
Carney is very likely to win: Carney wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Carney (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Schmidt (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+54.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+45 to D+65
- Partisan lean
- D+51
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Carney is very likely to win: Carney wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Carney (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Schmidt (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+56.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+44 to D+70
- Partisan lean
- D+51
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Daniel Schmidt
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.25 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 12.03 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 12.03 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+51: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 92,080
- People per km²
- 1,727
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 61%
- White, no degree
- 12%of adults
- White 53%
- Hispanic 16%
- Black 23%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
39,811 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Becky Carney (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
45,121 two-party votes · D+49.6 · D+51.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)74.8%
Donald Trump (R)25.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
27,902 votes · D+63.4✓ Becky Carney (D)81.7%
Cynthia Eleanor Clementi (R)18.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
89,065 votes · D+56.9✓ Becky Carney (D)78.4%
Kyle Kirby (R)21.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
46,198 two-party votes · D+53.5 · D+49.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)76.8%
Donald Trump (R)23.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
33,961 two-party votes · D+51.9 · D+49.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)76.0%
Donald Trump (R)24.0%