DemocraticIncumbent
Ya Liu
- Experience
- State legislature
North Carolina › North Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina House District 21
Liu is very likely to win: Liu wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Liu (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Johnson (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+34.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+25 to D+45
- Partisan lean
- D+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Liu is very likely to win: Liu wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Liu (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Johnson (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+33.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+20 to D+46
- Partisan lean
- D+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Bryson Johnson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.66 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.43 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.43 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+27: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 109,619
- People per km²
- 566
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 74%
- White, no degree
- 16%of adults
- White 52%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 8%
- Asian 28%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
48,733 votes · D+25.5✓ Ya Liu (D)62.8%
Mary Miskimon (R)37.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
49,178 two-party votes · D+27.0 · D+28.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)63.5%
Donald Trump (R)36.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
27,857 votes · D+38.7✓ Ya Liu (D)67.7%
Gerard Falzon (R)29.9%
Joshua Morris (L)2.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
66,536 votes · D+6.0✓ Raymond E Smith Jr (D)53.0%
Brent Heath (R)47.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
50,852 two-party votes · D+25.6 · D+21.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)62.8%
Donald Trump (R)37.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
29,813 two-party votes · D+16.4 · D+14.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)58.2%
Donald Trump (R)41.8%
Also on the ballot in North Carolina
Neighboring districts
HD-11Allison Dahle—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-29Vernetta Alston—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-31Zack Forde-Hawkins—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-36Julie von HaefenMary Insprucker99%Dem.96%Dem. HD-37Winn DeckerErin ParéFlip riskD flip53%Dem.63%Dem. HD-41Maria CervaniaBruce Forster>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-54Robert Reives—>99%Dem.>99%Dem.