Democratic
North Carolina › North Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina House District 118
Rogers is clearly favored to win: Rogers wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Davis (D)
9%
chance of winning
Rogers (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+11.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+25
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Rogers is very likely to win: Rogers wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Davis (D)
3%
chance of winning
Rogers (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+19.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+32 to R+7
- Partisan lean
- R+25
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jimmy Rogers
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.74 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.19 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+25: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 84,529
- People per km²
- 32
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 64%of adults
- White 91%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
50,287 votes · R+22.5✓ Mark Pless (R)61.3%
Evelyn Davidson (D)38.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
50,671 two-party votes · R+25.0 · R+23.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.5%
Kamala Harris (D)37.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
36,562 votes · R+20.6✓ Mark Pless (R)60.3%
Josh Remillard (D)39.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
92,283 votes · R+27.1✓ Mark Pless (R)63.6%
Alan Jones (D)36.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
52,171 two-party votes · R+25.6 · R+30.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.8%
Joe Biden (D)37.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
46,829 two-party votes · R+27.0 · R+29.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)36.5%