Democratic
North Carolina › North Carolina House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina House District 86
Blackwell is very likely to win: Blackwell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hendrix (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Blackwell (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+31.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+41 to R+22
- Partisan lean
- R+41
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Blackwell is very likely to win: Blackwell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hendrix (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Blackwell (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+35.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+49 to R+23
- Partisan lean
- R+41
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Hugh Blackwell
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- North Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.19 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.28 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.28 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+41: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 87,795
- People per km²
- 66
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 21%
- White, no degree
- 65%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 6%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
44,601 votes · R+44.1✓ Hugh Blackwell (R)72.0%
Gena Singleton (D)28.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
45,414 two-party votes · R+41.5 · R+40.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.8%
Kamala Harris (D)29.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
23,945 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Hugh Blackwell (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
77,792 votes · R+39.6✓ Hugh Blackwell (R)69.8%
Cecelia Surratt (D)30.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
47,612 two-party votes · R+40.4 · R+44.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.2%
Joe Biden (D)29.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
37,511 two-party votes · R+40.0 · R+42.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)30.0%
Also on the ballot in North Carolina
Neighboring districts
HD-85Suzanne GavenusDudley Greene>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-87Iris BenderDestin Hall>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-89Robert ThompsonMitchell Setzer>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-96Park InglefieldJay Adams99%Rep.97%Rep. HD-97Greg McBrydeHeather Rhyne>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-110Mary SilverCaroline Eason>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-111Jerry BlakePaul Scott>99%Rep.>99%Rep.