DemocraticIncumbent
Samantha Steckloff
- Experience
- State legislature
Michigan › Michigan House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan House District 19
Steckloff is very likely to win: Steckloff wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Steckloff (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Hammer (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+40.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+31 to D+50
- Partisan lean
- D+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Steckloff is very likely to win: Steckloff wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Steckloff (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Hammer (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+39.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+27 to D+52
- Partisan lean
- D+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Kevin Hammer
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.85 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.72 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.72 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 82,280
- People per km²
- 826
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 63%
- White, no degree
- 18%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 24%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
55,969 votes · D+30.6✓ Samantha Steckloff (D)65.3%
Kevin J Hammer (R)34.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
56,908 two-party votes · D+32.9 · D+34.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)66.4%
Donald Trump (R)33.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
47,673 votes · D+34.2✓ Samantha Steckloff (D)67.0%
Anthony Paesano (R)32.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
58,667 votes · D+0.4✓ Laurie Pohutsky (D)50.2%
Martha Ptashnik (R)49.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
59,248 two-party votes · D+36.7 · D+32.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)68.4%
Donald Trump (R)31.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
51,508 two-party votes · D+31.9 · D+29.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)65.9%
Donald Trump (R)34.1%