DemocraticIncumbent
Joey Andrews
- Experience
- State legislature
Michigan › Michigan House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan House District 38
Andrews is very likely to win: Andrews wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Andrews (D)
99%
chance of winning
Krieger (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+20.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+30
- Partisan lean
- D+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Andrews is clearly favored to win: Andrews wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Andrews (D)
92%
chance of winning
Krieger (R)
8%
- Average margin
- D+13.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+2 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+9
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.66 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.42 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.42 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 92,788
- People per km²
- 13
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 68%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 18%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
53,662 votes · D+6.3✓ Joey Andrews (D)53.2%
Kevin Whiteford (R)46.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
53,963 two-party votes · D+9.3 · D+10.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.6%
Donald Trump (R)45.4%
2022 Earlier district lines
42,009 votes · D+3.6✓ Joey Andrews (D)51.8%
Kevin Whiteford (R)48.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
60,480 votes · D+3.2✓ Kelly A Breen (D)51.6%
Chase Turner (R)48.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
52,947 two-party votes · D+9.4 · D+4.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.7%
Donald Trump (R)45.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
44,782 two-party votes · D+3.0 · D+0.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.5%
Donald Trump (R)48.5%