DemocraticIncumbent
Cynthia Neeley
- Experience
- State legislature
Michigan › Michigan House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan House District 70
Neeley is very likely to win: Neeley wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Neeley (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Hutchinson (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+59.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+50 to D+70
- Partisan lean
- D+58
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Neeley is very likely to win: Neeley wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Neeley (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Hutchinson (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+61.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+49 to D+75
- Partisan lean
- D+58
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Larry Hutchinson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.01 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.64 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.64 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+58: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 89,189
- People per km²
- 852
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 14%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 38%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 51%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
35,897 votes · D+59.5✓ Cynthia R Neeley (D)79.4%
Rob Waskoviak (R)20.1%
Michael Christopher-Floyd Clack (—)0.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
36,289 two-party votes · D+56.1 · D+57.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)78.1%
Donald Trump (R)21.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
25,937 votes · D+64.1✓ Cynthia R Neeley (D)82.0%
Tim Butler (R)18.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
39,908 votes · R+37.8✓ Pat Outman (R)68.9%
Karen Garvey (D)31.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
38,209 two-party votes · D+61.5 · D+56.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)80.7%
Donald Trump (R)19.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
36,179 two-party votes · D+65.4 · D+63.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)82.7%
Donald Trump (R)17.3%