DemocraticIncumbent
Kimberly Edwards
- Experience
- State legislature
Michigan › Michigan House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan House District 12
Edwards is very likely to win: Edwards wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Edwards (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Shafer (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+41.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+32 to D+52
- Partisan lean
- D+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Edwards is very likely to win: Edwards wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Edwards (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Shafer (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+40.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+27 to D+53
- Partisan lean
- D+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Randell Shafer
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.5 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.18 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 6.18 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+36: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 89,092
- People per km²
- 2,021
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 37%of adults
- White 47%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 45%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
44,865 votes · D+39.3✓ Kimberly L Edwards (D)69.7%
Randell J Shafer (R)30.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
46,060 two-party votes · D+35.1 · D+36.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)67.5%
Donald Trump (R)32.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
29,763 votes · D+44.1✓ Kimberly L Edwards (D)70.4%
Diane Saber (R)27.3%
Gregory Creswell (L)2.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
43,788 votes · D+24.7✓ Alex Garza (D)62.3%
Michelle Bailey (R)37.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
46,627 two-party votes · D+37.7 · D+33.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)68.8%
Donald Trump (R)31.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
41,162 two-party votes · D+35.2 · D+33.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)67.6%
Donald Trump (R)32.4%