DemocraticIncumbent
Sharon MacDonell
- Experience
- State legislature
Michigan › Michigan House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan House District 56
MacDonell is very likely to win: MacDonell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
MacDonell (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Baddi (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+22.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+14 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
MacDonell is very likely to win: MacDonell wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
MacDonell (D)
97%
chance of winning
Baddi (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+20.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Ashok Baddi
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.48 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.55 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.55 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 90,845
- People per km²
- 1,085
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 64%
- White, no degree
- 28%of adults
- White 68%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 4%
- Asian 21%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
50,901 votes · D+14.4✓ Sharon Macdonell (D)57.2%
Dave Kniffen (R)42.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
52,048 two-party votes · D+13.7 · D+15.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.9%
Donald Trump (R)43.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
42,554 votes · D+15.9✓ Sharon Macdonell (D)57.9%
Mark Gunn (R)42.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
48,796 votes · R+31.1✓ Tc Clements (R)64.2%
Keith W Kitchens (D)33.8%
Jeffrey Jon Rubley II (—)2.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
53,169 two-party votes · D+16.4 · D+11.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.2%
Donald Trump (R)41.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
44,186 two-party votes · D+4.9 · D+2.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.5%
Donald Trump (R)47.5%