Democratic
Michigan › Michigan House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan House District 41
Strebs is very likely to win: Strebs wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Strebs (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Sabel (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+55.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+46 to D+65
- Partisan lean
- D+53
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Strebs is very likely to win: Strebs wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Strebs (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Sabel (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+57.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+45 to D+70
- Partisan lean
- D+53
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.52 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.97 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+53: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 90,768
- People per km²
- 1,058
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 37%of adults
- White 61%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 21%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
39,804 votes · D+55.1✓ Julie M Rogers (D)75.6%
Terry Haines (R)21.9%
Rafael Wolf (L)2.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
39,531 two-party votes · D+52.4 · D+53.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)76.2%
Donald Trump (R)23.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
30,228 votes · D+57.7✓ Julie M Rogers (D)76.8%
Terry Haines (R)20.6%
Rafael Wolf (L)2.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
55,593 votes · D+10.1✓ Padma Kuppa (D)55.0%
Andrew J Sosnoski (R)45.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
40,222 two-party votes · D+53.6 · D+49.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)76.8%
Donald Trump (R)23.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
35,308 two-party votes · D+50.0 · D+47.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)75.0%
Donald Trump (R)25.0%