DemocraticIncumbent
Betsy Coffia
- Experience
- State legislature
Michigan › Michigan House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan House District 103
Coffia is very likely to win: Coffia wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Coffia (D)
98%
chance of winning
Dean (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+16.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+7 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Coffia is clearly favored to win: Coffia wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Coffia (D)
84%
chance of winning
Dean (R)
16%
- Average margin
- D+9.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.13 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.12 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.12 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 96,474
- People per km²
- 13
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 46%
- White, no degree
- 49%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
64,622 votes · D+4.2✓ Betsy Coffia (D)52.1%
Lisa Trombley (R)47.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
64,599 two-party votes · D+7.2 · D+8.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.6%
Donald Trump (R)46.4%
2022 Earlier district lines
55,798 votes · D+1.4✓ Betsy Coffia (D)49.8%
Jack Omalley (R)48.5%
Courtney Evans (L)1.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
52,010 votes · R+42.0✓ Daire Rendon (R)71.0%
Zach Larson (D)29.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
62,549 two-party votes · D+4.8 · D+0.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.4%
Donald Trump (R)47.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
51,708 two-party votes · R+6.0 · R+8.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.0%