Democratic
Michigan › Michigan House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan House District 72
Mueller is clearly favored to win: Mueller wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Ryan (D)
11%
chance of winning
Mueller (R)
89%
- Average margin
- R+8.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+18 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Mueller is clearly favored to win: Mueller wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Ryan (D)
17%
chance of winning
Mueller (R)
83%
- Average margin
- R+8.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Mike Mueller
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.48 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.45 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -5.45 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 89,579
- People per km²
- 198
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 4%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
57,437 votes · R+21.6✓ Mike Mueller (R)60.8%
John Dolza (D)39.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
58,918 two-party votes · R+14.2 · R+12.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.1%
Kamala Harris (D)42.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
45,546 votes · R+16.2✓ Mike Mueller (R)58.1%
Stacy Taylor (D)41.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
53,784 votes · R+10.1✓ Steven Johnson (R)55.1%
Lily Cheng-Schulting (D)44.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
56,528 two-party votes · R+11.7 · R+16.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.8%
Joe Biden (D)44.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
45,453 two-party votes · R+16.5 · R+18.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.7%