Democratic
Michigan › Michigan House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan House District 89
Moss is very likely to win: Moss wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Zickus (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Moss (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+26.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+37 to R+18
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Moss is very likely to win: Moss wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Zickus (D)
1%
chance of winning
Moss (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+28.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+41 to R+16
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Joe Moss
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.54 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.21 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 96,232
- People per km²
- 87
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 67%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
50,710 votes · R+38.6✓ Luke Meerman (R)69.3%
Lois E Maassen (D)30.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
51,585 two-party votes · R+33.6 · R+32.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.8%
Kamala Harris (D)33.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
39,871 votes · R+37.9✓ Luke Meerman (R)69.0%
Sharon McConnon (D)31.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
58,923 votes · R+23.4✓ Jim Lilly (R)61.7%
Anita Marie Brown (D)38.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
47,224 two-party votes · R+34.4 · R+39.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.2%
Joe Biden (D)32.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
37,609 two-party votes · R+37.7 · R+40.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)31.1%
Also on the ballot in Michigan
Neighboring districts
HD-84Khristian SilvisDrew Jake Robbins99%Dem.95%Dem. HD-85Richard AbrahamBradley Slagh>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-87Will SnyderCody Chipman>99%Dem.98%Dem. HD-88Kiel ReidGreg VanWoerkom70%Rep.64%Rep. HD-90Rachel CrowtherLynn Afendoulis95%Rep.92%Rep. HD-101Christopher CrainJaxon Deur>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-102Angel CoonCurt VanderWall98%Rep.94%Rep.