Democratic
Michigan › Michigan House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan House District 9
Burton is very likely to win: Burton wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Burton (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Lundgren (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+83.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+74 to D+94
- Partisan lean
- D+86
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Burton is very likely to win: Burton wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Burton (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Lundgren (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+89.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+76 to D+100
- Partisan lean
- D+86
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.3 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.47 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+86: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 90,629
- People per km²
- 1,196
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 7%of adults
- White 21%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 68%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
35,819 votes · D+86.0✓ Joe Tate (D)93.0%
Michele Lundgren (R)7.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
36,147 two-party votes · D+85.0 · D+86.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)92.5%
Donald Trump (R)7.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
19,511 votes · D+83.2✓ Abraham Aiyash (D)91.3%
Michele Lundgren (R)8.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
30,841 votes · D+88.4✓ Karen Whitsett (D)94.2%
James Stephens (R)5.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
37,449 two-party votes · D+89.4 · D+84.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)94.7%
Donald Trump (R)5.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
35,428 two-party votes · D+92.3 · D+90.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)96.1%
Donald Trump (R)3.9%