Staggered Senate
Senators serve terms of two or four years in a set pattern each decade, so a different share of the seats is on the ballot each election: 39 of 59 in 2026.
Illinois › Illinois State Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois Legislative District 56
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (65%).
Geldert-Murphey is favored to win: Geldert-Murphey wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Geldert-Murphey (D)
65%
chance of winning
Harriss (R)
35%
- Average margin
- D+2.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (68%).
Geldert-Murphey is favored to win: Geldert-Murphey wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Geldert-Murphey (D)
68%
chance of winning
Harriss (R)
32%
- Average margin
- D+4.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Marsia Geldert-Murphey
RepublicanIncumbent
Erica Harriss
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Illinois state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +0.3How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.87 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.79 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.79 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 220,363
- People per km²
- 348
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 55%of adults
- White 76%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 11%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 President Vote in this district
98,898 two-party votes · R+2.0 · R+0.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.0%
Kamala Harris (D)49.0%
2022
73,302 votes · R+2.2✓ Erica Conway Harriss (R)51.1%
Kris Tharp (D)48.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
103,025 two-party votes · R+3.1 · R+7.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.5%
Joe Biden (D)48.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
78,276 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Rachelle Aud Crowe (D)58.4%
Hal Patton (OTH)41.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
78,460 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ William Haine (D)100.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
93,578 two-party votes · R+7.1 · R+9.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.4%