DemocraticIncumbent
Mike Frerichs
Incumbent treasurer (2015-present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Illinois › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois Treasurer
Frerichs is very likely to win: Frerichs wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Frerichs (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Solomon (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+23.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+15 to D+31
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Frerichs is very likely to win: Frerichs wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Frerichs (D)
98%
chance of winning
Solomon (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+23.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+10 to D+37
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Max Solomon
Perennial candidate
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Illinois state offices
- +0.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.1Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.23 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.23 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The state
Lean D+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 12,694,798
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 58%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 13%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
5,511,942 two-party votes · D+11.1 · D+12.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)55.6%
Donald Trump (R)44.4%
2022
4,065,082 votes · D+11.1✓ Michael W Frerichs (D)54.3%
Tom Demmer (R)43.5%
Preston Nelson (L)2.2%
2020 President Vote in this state
5,918,806 two-party votes · D+17.3 · D+12.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.7%
Donald Trump (R)41.3%
2018
4,501,138 votes · D+19.4✓ Michael W Frerichs (D)57.6%
Jim Dodge (R)38.9%
Michael Leheney (L)3.4%
2016 President Vote in this state
5,236,744 two-party votes · D+18.0 · D+15.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)59.0%
Donald Trump (R)41.0%