Democratic
Texas › Texas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas House District 82
Craddick is very likely to win: Craddick wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Broadrick (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Craddick (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+50.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+60 to R+41
- Partisan lean
- R+61
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Craddick is very likely to win: Craddick wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Broadrick (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Craddick (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+55.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+68 to R+43
- Partisan lean
- R+61
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Tom Craddick
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Texas state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.69 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.21 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.21 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+61: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 192,153
- People per km²
- 27
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 28%of adults
- White 42%
- Hispanic 47%
- Black 6%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
61,101 votes · R+65.5✓ Craddick (R)82.7%
Schafersman (D)17.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
63,844 two-party votes · R+61.6 · R+60.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)80.8%
Kamala Harris (D)19.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
61,046 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Tom Craddick (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
63,856 two-party votes · R+58.0 · R+62.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)79.0%
Joe Biden (D)21.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
48,707 votes · R+60.3✓ Tom Craddick (R)80.1%
Spencer Bounds (D)19.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
53,373 two-party votes · R+57.6 · R+59.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)78.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)21.2%