Democratic
Texas › Texas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas House District 26
Morgan is clearly favored to win: Morgan wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Markowitz (D)
8%
chance of winning
Morgan (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+10.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Morgan is clearly favored to win: Morgan wins in about 5 of every 6 simulations.
Markowitz (D)
18%
chance of winning
Morgan (R)
82%
- Average margin
- R+8.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Matt Morgan
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Texas state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.98 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.13 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.13 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 204,000
- People per km²
- 954
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 60%
- White, no degree
- 14%of adults
- White 38%
- Hispanic 25%
- Black 12%
- Asian 21%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
82,066 votes · R+18.3✓ Morgan (R)59.2%
Lee (D)40.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
83,925 two-party votes · R+15.8 · R+14.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.9%
Kamala Harris (D)42.1%
2022
61,606 votes · R+21.3✓ Jacey Jetton (R)60.7%
Daniel Lee (D)39.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
83,874 votes · R+3.6✓ Jacey Jetton (R)51.8%
L Demerchant (D)48.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
103,441 two-party votes · R+11.1 · R+15.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.6%
Joe Biden (D)44.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
75,580 two-party votes · R+23.4 · R+25.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.3%