Democratic
Texas › Texas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas House District 125
Reyna is very likely to win: Reyna wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Reyna (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Martinez (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+31.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+20 to D+43
- Partisan lean
- D+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Reyna is very likely to win: Reyna wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Reyna (D)
99%
chance of winning
Martinez (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+24.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+12 to D+38
- Partisan lean
- D+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Ricardo Martinez
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Texas state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.38 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 204,107
- People per km²
- 1,751
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 15%of adults
- White 23%
- Hispanic 66%
- Black 5%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
48,251 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Lopez (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
77,811 two-party votes · D+15.0 · D+16.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.5%
Donald Trump (R)42.5%
2022
55,695 votes · D+24.8✓ Ray Lopez (D)62.4%
Carlos Antonio Raymond (R)37.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
57,015 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ray Lopez (D)79.8%
Tony Valdivia (—)20.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
98,292 two-party votes · D+26.0 · D+21.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)63.0%
Donald Trump (R)37.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
81,525 two-party votes · D+24.0 · D+21.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)62.0%
Donald Trump (R)38.0%