Democratic
Texas › Texas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas House District 9
Thigpen is very likely to win: Thigpen wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Tatum (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Thigpen (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+46.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+56 to R+37
- Partisan lean
- R+57
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Thigpen is very likely to win: Thigpen wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Tatum (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Thigpen (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+52.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+65 to R+40
- Partisan lean
- R+57
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Rocky Thigpen
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Texas state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.51 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.59 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+57: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 204,284
- People per km²
- 14
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 16%
- White, no degree
- 56%of adults
- White 65%
- Hispanic 18%
- Black 12%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
73,993 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ashby (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
88,251 two-party votes · R+58.4 · R+56.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)79.2%
Kamala Harris (D)20.8%
2022
63,349 votes · R+64.7✓ Trent Ashby (R)82.4%
Jason Rogers (D)17.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
62,151 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Chris Paddie (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
106,704 two-party votes · R+52.3 · R+56.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)76.1%
Joe Biden (D)23.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
84,671 two-party votes · R+53.6 · R+55.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)76.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)23.2%