Democratic
Texas › Texas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas House District 29
Barry is very likely to win: Barry wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Reeder (D)
2%
chance of winning
Barry (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+16.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Barry is clearly favored to win: Barry wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Reeder (D)
8%
chance of winning
Barry (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+14.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Jeff Barry
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Texas state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -3.34 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.57 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.57 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 204,701
- People per km²
- 150
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 29%of adults
- White 42%
- Hispanic 34%
- Black 14%
- Asian 8%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
80,715 votes · R+23.0✓ Barry (R)61.5%
Bell (D)38.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
81,652 two-party votes · R+20.2 · R+18.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.1%
Kamala Harris (D)39.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
96,306 votes · R+13.4✓ Ed Thompson (R)56.7%
Travis Boldt (D)43.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
83,171 two-party votes · R+19.0 · R+23.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.5%
Joe Biden (D)40.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
46,810 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ed Thompson (R)100.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
63,808 two-party votes · R+25.8 · R+28.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.1%