Democratic
Texas › Texas House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas House District 3
Plaisance is very likely to win: Plaisance wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
King (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Plaisance (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+41.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+51 to R+32
- Partisan lean
- R+53
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Plaisance is very likely to win: Plaisance wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
King (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Plaisance (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+47.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+61 to R+36
- Partisan lean
- R+53
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Kristen Plaisance
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Texas state offices
- +0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+9.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.5How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.73 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.41 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+53: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 223,185
- People per km²
- 246
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 38%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 30%
- Black 4%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
85,793 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Bell (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
100,491 two-party votes · R+52.8 · R+51.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)76.4%
Kamala Harris (D)23.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
90,957 votes · R+54.7✓ Cecil Bell Jr (R)77.4%
Martin Shupp (D)22.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
82,865 two-party votes · R+53.7 · R+58.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)76.8%
Joe Biden (D)23.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
63,971 votes · R+52.0✓ Cecil Bell Jr (R)76.0%
Lisa Seger (D)24.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
59,775 two-party votes · R+61.3 · R+63.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)80.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)19.4%
Also on the ballot in Texas
Neighboring districts
HD-12Andie HoTrey Wharton>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-15Moniqua S. ScottBrad Bailey>99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-16Bobbie ClaytonWill Metcalf>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-18Valorie BartonJanis Holt>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-85Lawrence BrandyburgDennis "Goose" Geesaman>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-127Michelle WilliamsCharles Cunningham91%Rep.84%Rep. HD-130Brett RobinsonTom Oliverson>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-150A'Yonna KellumValoree Swanson93%Rep.85%Rep.