Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Florida › Florida House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Florida House District 116

Perez-Biliskov is very likely to win: Perez-Biliskov wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Ramos (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Perez-Biliskov (R)
>99%
Average margin
R+25.5
80% of outcomes
R+37 to R+15
Partisan lean
R+31
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Perez-Biliskov is very likely to win: Perez-Biliskov wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.

Ramos (D)
1%
chance of winning
Perez-Biliskov (R)
99%
Average margin
R+27.2
80% of outcomes
R+41 to R+13
Partisan lean
R+31
Polls
No pollsmodel only

How this race is decided

Unopposed races skip the ballot

A candidate with no opponent is declared elected and the race does not appear on the ballot, so some seats have no vote totals.

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

R+25.5R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40
R+27.2R+60R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40D+60

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Ramos <1%Perez-Biliskov >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Ramos 1%Perez-Biliskov 99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Florida state offices
−1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
Swing reaching this office
58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
Southeast adjustment
−1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by 58% of the environment andthe Southeast adjustmentR+22.0Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+24.6Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Florida and look-alikeplacesR+26.2Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+25.6Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+27.3

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)-2.85
Elected-experience edge0
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-3.59
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The district

Lean R+31: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+4.1D+1.8 vs. nation2020 presidentR+20.4R+24.9 vs. nation2024 presidentR+34.9R+33.4 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
174,044
People per km²
2,843
Adults with a B.A.+
34%
White, no degree
4%of adults
  • White 10%
  • Hispanic 85%
  • Black 2%
  • Asian 2%
  • Other / multiracial 2%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

77,074 votes · R+37.4
✓ Daniel A. Perez (R)68.7%
Nicolas Ramos (D)31.3%

2024 President Vote in this district

79,700 two-party votes · R+34.9 · R+33.4 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)67.5%
Kamala Harris (D)32.5%

2020 Earlier district lines

77,867 votes · R+25.6
✓ Daniel A Perez (R)62.7%
Bob Lynch (D)37.1%

2020 President Vote in this district

86,567 two-party votes · R+20.4 · R+24.9 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)60.2%
Joe Biden (D)39.8%

2018 Earlier district lines

55,516 votes · R+14.6
✓ Daniel Anthony Perez (R)57.3%
James Alexander Harden (D)42.7%

2016 President Vote in this district

73,384 two-party votes · D+4.1 · D+1.8 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.0%
Donald Trump (R)48.0%