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Florida › Florida House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida House District 76
Oliver is very likely to win: Oliver wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Carter (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Oliver (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+29.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+39 to R+20
- Partisan lean
- R+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Oliver is very likely to win: Oliver wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Carter (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Oliver (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+31.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+44 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Phillip Ray Carter
RepublicanIncumbent
Vanessa Oliver
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Florida state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.64 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.96 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.96 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+36: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 195,939
- People per km²
- 55
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 58%of adults
- White 74%
- Hispanic 16%
- Black 5%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
100,002 votes · R+41.0✓ Vanessa Oliver (R)70.5%
Jim Blue (D)29.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
106,917 two-party votes · R+37.3 · R+35.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.7%
Kamala Harris (D)31.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
104,246 votes · R+31.0✓ Adam Botana (R)65.5%
Anselm Weber (D)34.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
110,930 two-party votes · R+30.0 · R+34.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.0%
Joe Biden (D)35.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
82,092 votes · R+29.0✓ Ray Rodrigues (R)64.5%
David Bogner (D)35.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
87,158 two-party votes · R+31.9 · R+34.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)34.0%
Also on the ballot in Florida
Neighboring districts
HD-72Harvey ShifrinWilliam Bill Conerly99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-74Ryan NeillNick Pachota99%Rep.97%Rep. HD-75Cynthia L. ButlerDanny Nix Jr.>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-77Cornelius FowlerTiffany Esposito99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-78Cindy BanyaiSusan Frantz92%Rep.86%Rep. HD-79—Mike Giallombardo>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-80William MoskalAdam Botana>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-82Arthur BoyerLiesa Priddy>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-83Leigh EstesKaylee Tuck>99%Rep.>99%Rep.