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Florida › Florida House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida House District 48
Albert is clearly favored to win: Albert wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Pugh (D)
8%
chance of winning
Albert (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+10.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Albert is clearly favored to win: Albert wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Pugh (D)
12%
chance of winning
Albert (R)
88%
- Average margin
- R+11.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Alethea Pugh
RepublicanIncumbent
Jonathan Albert
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Florida state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.81 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.37 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.37 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 181,391
- People per km²
- 95
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 48%
- Hispanic 29%
- Black 18%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
86,190 votes · R+15.8✓ Jon Albert (R)57.9%
John Hill (D)42.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
89,169 two-party votes · R+16.0 · R+14.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.0%
Kamala Harris (D)42.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
72,538 votes · D+30.5✓ Daisy Morales (D)65.3%
Jesus Martinez (R)34.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
110,641 two-party votes · R+10.1 · R+14.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.1%
Joe Biden (D)44.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
50,804 votes · D+46.8✓ Amy Mercado (D)73.4%
George Chandler (R)26.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
74,386 two-party votes · R+9.0 · R+11.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.5%