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Florida › Florida House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida House District 25
Yarkosky is clearly favored to win: Yarkosky wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Helfrich (D)
6%
chance of winning
Yarkosky (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+11.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Yarkosky is clearly favored to win: Yarkosky wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Helfrich (D)
11%
chance of winning
Yarkosky (R)
89%
- Average margin
- R+11.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Farmer Banks Helfrich
RepublicanIncumbent
Taylor Yarkosky
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Florida state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.37 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.93 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.93 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 199,786
- People per km²
- 155
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 41%of adults
- White 56%
- Hispanic 24%
- Black 10%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
105,078 votes · R+20.1✓ Taylor Yarkosky (R)60.0%
Fody Merritt Jr (D)40.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
108,653 two-party votes · R+16.7 · R+15.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.3%
Kamala Harris (D)41.7%
2022
70,511 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Taylor Yarkosky (R)66.0%
Banks Helfrich (I)34.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
104,778 votes · R+28.3✓ Tom Leek (R)62.7%
Sarah Zutter (D)35.0%
Joseph Hannoush (—)2.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
115,538 two-party votes · R+12.3 · R+16.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.1%
Joe Biden (D)43.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
128,613 two-party votes · R+14.4 · R+16.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.8%