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Florida › Florida House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida House District 78
Frantz is clearly favored to win: Frantz wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Banyai (D)
8%
chance of winning
Frantz (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+10.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Frantz is clearly favored to win: Frantz wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Banyai (D)
14%
chance of winning
Frantz (R)
86%
- Average margin
- R+10.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Cindy Banyai
Republican
Susan Frantz
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Florida state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.89 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.73 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 174,475
- People per km²
- 655
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 37%of adults
- White 56%
- Hispanic 23%
- Black 14%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
82,037 votes · R+19.8✓ Jenna Persons-Mulicka (R)59.9%
Howard Sapp (D)40.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
85,453 two-party votes · R+15.4 · R+13.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.7%
Kamala Harris (D)42.3%
2022
62,817 votes · R+25.5✓ Jenna Persons-Mulicka (R)62.7%
Howard Sapp (D)37.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
91,256 votes · R+15.0✓ Jenna Persons (R)57.5%
Shawn Michael Williams (D)42.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
101,721 two-party votes · R+7.7 · R+12.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.8%
Joe Biden (D)46.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
89,356 two-party votes · R+10.3 · R+12.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.8%