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Florida › Florida House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida House District 9
Tant is very likely to win: Tant wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Tant (D)
99%
chance of winning
Robinson (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+19.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+9 to D+31
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Tant is clearly favored to win: Tant wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Tant (D)
88%
chance of winning
Robinson (R)
12%
- Average margin
- D+11.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Allison Tant
Republican
Tracy Robinson
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Florida state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 3.9 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 10.91 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 10.91 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 189,599
- People per km²
- 51
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 52%
- White, no degree
- 31%of adults
- White 66%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 17%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
108,850 votes · D+14.1✓ Allison Tant (D)57.1%
Spencer Brass (R)42.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
111,279 two-party votes · D+4.4 · D+5.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.2%
Donald Trump (R)47.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
101,769 votes · D+15.7✓ Allison Tant (D)57.8%
Jim Kallinger (R)42.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
127,716 two-party votes · D+9.8 · D+5.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.9%
Donald Trump (R)45.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
95,351 votes · D+12.3✓ Loranne Ausley (D)56.1%
Jim Messer (R)43.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
105,031 two-party votes · D+8.2 · D+6.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.1%
Donald Trump (R)45.9%