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Florida › Florida House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida House District 31
Woodside is very likely to win: Woodside wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Cicirelli (D)
1%
chance of winning
Woodside (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+18.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+10
- Partisan lean
- R+25
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Woodside is very likely to win: Woodside wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Cicirelli (D)
2%
chance of winning
Woodside (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+20.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+33 to R+9
- Partisan lean
- R+25
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Daniel Lewis Cicirelli
Republican
Matt Woodside
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Florida state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.29 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.5 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+25: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 186,252
- People per km²
- 131
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 76%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 7%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
101,249 votes · R+27.4✓ Tyler Sirois (R)63.7%
Joanne R. Terry (D)36.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
103,732 two-party votes · R+26.4 · R+24.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.2%
Kamala Harris (D)36.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
97,714 votes · R+19.4✓ Keith Truenow (R)59.7%
Crissy Stile (D)40.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
105,788 two-party votes · R+21.9 · R+26.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.9%
Joe Biden (D)39.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
74,778 votes · R+22.2✓ Jennifer Sullivan (R)61.1%
Debra A Kaplan (D)38.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
117,769 two-party votes · R+25.0 · R+27.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.5%