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Florida › Florida House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida House District 20
Sapp is very likely to win: Sapp wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Butler (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Sapp (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+38.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+49 to R+30
- Partisan lean
- R+47
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Sapp is very likely to win: Sapp wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Butler (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Sapp (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+42.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+56 to R+31
- Partisan lean
- R+47
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Lee Butler
RepublicanIncumbent
Judson Sapp
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Florida state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.69 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.28 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.28 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+47: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 175,223
- People per km²
- 34
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 19%
- White, no degree
- 61%of adults
- White 74%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 10%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
98,352 votes · R+50.8✓ Judson Sapp (R)75.4%
Tony Connolly (D)24.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
106,632 two-party votes · R+48.5 · R+47.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)74.3%
Kamala Harris (D)25.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
106,972 two-party votes · R+42.3 · R+46.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.2%
Joe Biden (D)28.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
85,299 two-party votes · R+44.1 · R+46.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)72.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)27.9%
2012 Earlier district lines
49,563 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Clovis Watson (D)99.0%
Robert W Brinkman (—)1.0%
Also on the ballot in Florida
Neighboring districts
HD-10Merrillee Malwitz JipsonMarshall Rawson>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-11—Sam Garrison>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-18Art StresingKim Kendall>99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-19Suzanna PavelleSam Greco98%Rep.97%Rep. HD-21Jacquelyn Jackie Randall—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-24—Ryan Chamberlin>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-27Andy FerrariRichard Gentry>99%Rep.>99%Rep.