Unopposed races skip the ballot
A candidate with no opponent is declared elected and the race does not appear on the ballot, so some seats have no vote totals.
Florida › Florida House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida House District 43
Santiago is very likely to win: Santiago wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Santiago (D)
99%
chance of winning
Malavet (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+22.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+13 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Santiago is very likely to win: Santiago wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Santiago (D)
97%
chance of winning
Malavet (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+19.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+7 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Samuel Vilchez Santiago
Orange County Democratic Party chair
- Experience
- No elected office
Republican
Jorge Malavet
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Florida state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.85 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.56 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 176,983
- People per km²
- 998
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 16%of adults
- White 23%
- Hispanic 60%
- Black 9%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
61,922 votes · D+14.7✓ Johanna Lopez (D)57.3%
Joseph "Joe" Melendez (R)42.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
64,601 two-party votes · D+11.2 · D+12.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)55.6%
Donald Trump (R)44.4%
2022
38,573 votes · D+14.8✓ Johanna Lopez (D)57.4%
Christopher Wright (R)42.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
69,622 two-party votes · D+25.2 · D+20.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)62.6%
Donald Trump (R)37.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
61,211 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ John Cortes (D)97.8%
Write-In (—)2.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
121,929 two-party votes · D+38.1 · D+35.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)69.0%
Donald Trump (R)31.0%