Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Connecticut House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut House District 133
FusionVahey is very likely to win: Vahey wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Vahey (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Miro (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+37.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+28 to D+47
- Partisan lean
- D+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Vahey is very likely to win: Vahey wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Vahey (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Miro (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+38.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+26 to D+51
- Partisan lean
- D+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Cristin McCarthy Vahey
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Lisa Miro
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.44 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.59 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.59 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+30: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 24,976
- People per km²
- 1,663
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 57%
- White, no degree
- 25%of adults
- White 68%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 4%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
12,423 votes · D+31.2✓ Cristin McCarthy Vahey (D)65.6%
Chris Verras (R)34.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,691 two-party votes · D+28.5 · D+30.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)64.3%
Donald Trump (R)35.7%
2022
9,049 votes · D+25.6✓ Cristin McCarthy Vahey (D)62.8%
Michael Grant (R)37.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
12,101 votes · D+30.0✓ Cristin McCarthy Vahey (D)65.0%
Joanne Romano-Csonka (R)35.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
13,893 two-party votes · D+34.4 · D+29.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)67.2%
Donald Trump (R)32.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
11,933 two-party votes · D+27.0 · D+24.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)63.5%
Donald Trump (R)36.5%