Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Connecticut House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut House District 35
FusionProjected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (83%).
Lettieri is clearly favored to win: Lettieri wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Lettieri (D)
83%
chance of winning
Aniskovich (R)
17%
- Average margin
- D+7.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (90%).
Lettieri is clearly favored to win: Lettieri wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Lettieri (D)
90%
chance of winning
Aniskovich (R)
10%
- Average margin
- D+12.5
- 80% of outcomes
- Even to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Cinzia Lettieri
RepublicanIncumbent
Chris Aniskovich
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.56 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.6 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -6.6 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 22,528
- People per km²
- 128
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 48%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 84%
- Hispanic 7%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
14,354 votes · R+1.0✓ Chris Aniskovich (R)50.5%
Cinzia Lettieri (D)49.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
14,716 two-party votes · D+7.3 · D+8.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.7%
Donald Trump (R)46.3%
2022
11,461 votes · R+2.7✓ Chris Aniskovich (R)51.0%
Christine Goupil (D)48.3%
Hugh Birdsall (G)0.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
14,218 votes · D+2.0✓ Christine Goupil (D)49.7%
John L Hall III (R)47.8%
John May (—)2.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
11,266 two-party votes · D+10.5 · D+5.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.2%
Donald Trump (R)44.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
10,034 two-party votes · R+1.3 · R+3.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.3%