Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Connecticut House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut House District 79
FusionFortier is very likely to win: Fortier wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Fortier (D)
95%
chance of winning
Thibeault (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+12.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Fortier is clearly favored to win: Fortier wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Fortier (D)
86%
chance of winning
Thibeault (R)
14%
- Average margin
- D+10.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Mary Fortier
- Experience
- State legislature
Republican
Cheryl Thibeault
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.43 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 12.74 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 12.74 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 19,860
- People per km²
- 891
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 23%
- Black 8%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
9,304 votes · D+12.9✓ Mary B Fortier (D)56.4%
David Schrager (R)43.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
9,100 two-party votes · R+0.3 · D+1.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.2%
Kamala Harris (D)49.8%
2022
6,603 votes · D+3.7✓ Mary B Fortier (D)51.9%
Jennifer van Gorder (R)48.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
10,358 votes · D+5.2✓ Christopher Ziogas (D)52.6%
David Rackliffe (R)47.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
10,166 two-party votes · D+11.8 · D+7.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.9%
Donald Trump (R)44.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
8,710 two-party votes · D+6.3 · D+4.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)53.2%
Donald Trump (R)46.8%