Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Connecticut House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut House District 85
FusionCarmody is very likely to win: Carmody wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Carmody (D)
95%
chance of winning
Laffin (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+12.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Carmody is clearly favored to win: Carmody wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Carmody (D)
90%
chance of winning
Laffin (R)
10%
- Average margin
- D+12.0
- 80% of outcomes
- Even to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Samuel Carmody
Republican
Tom Laffin
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.57 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 8.95 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 21,648
- People per km²
- 787
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 40%
- White, no degree
- 49%of adults
- White 77%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 3%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
11,471 votes · D+11.2✓ Mary M Mushinsky (D)55.6%
Jerry Farrell Jr (R)44.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
6,446 two-party votes · D+2.7 · D+4.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.3%
Donald Trump (R)48.7%
2022
8,689 votes · D+9.4✓ Mary M Mushinsky (D)54.7%
Kerry Lentz (R)45.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
11,841 votes · D+5.6✓ Mary Mushinsky (D)52.8%
Weston Ulbrich (R)47.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
10,910 two-party votes · D+11.2 · D+6.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.6%
Donald Trump (R)44.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
9,415 two-party votes · D+4.0 · D+1.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)52.0%
Donald Trump (R)48.0%