Connecticut › Connecticut House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Connecticut House District 104

Fusion

Rochelle is very likely to win: Rochelle wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.

Rochelle (D)

96%

chance of winning

Sexton (R)

Average margin: D+14.6
80% of outcomes: D+5 to D+25
Partisan lean: D+2
Polls: No pollsmodel only

Rochelle is clearly favored to win: Rochelle wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.

Rochelle (D)

85%

chance of winning

Sexton (R)

16%

Average margin: D+9.8
80% of outcomes: R+3 to D+23
Partisan lean: D+2
Polls: No pollsmodel only

Statewide map: Connecticut House of Representatives

How this race is decided

Fusion voting

Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

DemocraticIncumbent

Kara Rochelle

Experience: State legislature

Profile and career

Republican

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment: D+9.5Election Day forecast
Connecticut state offices: +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here: D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
Swing reaching this office: 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
New England adjustment: −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs

Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)	1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)	1.68
Elected-experience edge	0.67
First-term incumbent	0
Seat's last result vs. expectation	9.58
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation	9.58

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The district

Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population: 19,033
People per km²: 1,012
Adults with a B.A.+: 22%
White, no degree: 45%of adults

White 53%
Hispanic 28%
Black 13%
Asian 2%
Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

9,336 votes · D+9.4

✓ Kara Rochelle (D)54.0%

David S Cassetti (R)44.7%

Thomas G Egan (—)1.3%

2024 President Vote in this district

8,753 two-party votes · R+0.1 · D+1.4 vs. the nation

✓ Donald Trump (R)50.0%

Kamala Harris (D)50.0%

2022

6,393 votes · D+5.5

✓ Kara Rochelle (D)52.7%

Josh Shuart (R)47.3%

2020 Earlier district lines

9,914 votes · D+19.2

✓ Kara Rochelle (D)59.6%

Myra Rivers (R)40.4%

2020 President Vote in this district

9,482 two-party votes · D+9.8 · D+5.3 vs. the nation

✓ Joe Biden (D)54.9%

Donald Trump (R)45.1%

2016 President Vote in this district

8,168 two-party votes · Even · R+2.3 vs. the nation