Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › Connecticut House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut House District 149
FusionProjected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (97%).
Goldberg is very likely to win: Goldberg wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Goldberg (D)
97%
chance of winning
Courpas (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+16.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (99%).
Goldberg is very likely to win: Goldberg wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Goldberg (D)
99%
chance of winning
Courpas (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+27.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+15 to D+41
- Partisan lean
- D+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Amiel Goldberg
RepublicanIncumbent
Tina Courpas
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Connecticut state offices
- +1.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.5Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- −2.0How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.39 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -22.01 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -22.01 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 29,851
- People per km²
- 290
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 71%
- White, no degree
- 21%of adults
- White 78%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 4%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
13,752 votes · R+3.6✓ Tina Courpas (R)51.8%
Rachel Khanna (D)48.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
26,492 two-party votes · D+21.3 · D+22.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)60.7%
Donald Trump (R)39.3%
2022
10,492 votes · D+2.0✓ Rachel Khanna (D)51.0%
Kimberly Fiorello (R)49.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
14,012 votes · R+2.8✓ Kimberly Fiorello (R)51.4%
Kathleen Stowe (D)48.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
15,369 two-party votes · D+20.0 · D+15.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)60.0%
Donald Trump (R)40.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
13,384 two-party votes · D+14.4 · D+12.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)57.2%
Donald Trump (R)42.8%
Also on the ballot in Connecticut
Neighboring districts
HD-125Meredith TobitschTom O'DeaD flipD flip96%Dem.99%Dem. HD-144Hubert DelanyLayne Rodney>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-145Corey ParisAndrew Krill>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-147Matt BlumenthalCarola Cammann>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-150Steve MeskersJonathan Goldstein>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-151Hector ArzenoMichael Mason>99%Dem.99%Dem.