Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.
Tennessee › Tennessee House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Tennessee House District 26
Martin is clearly favored to win: Martin wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Denton (D)
9%
chance of winning
Martin (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+10.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Martin is clearly favored to win: Martin wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Denton (D)
5%
chance of winning
Martin (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+16.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+29 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Nathan Denton
RepublicanIncumbent
Greg Martin
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Tennessee state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.72 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.49 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.49 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 86,878
- People per km²
- 243
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 84%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 6%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
39,568 votes · R+24.3✓ Greg Martin (R)62.1%
Allison Gorman (D)37.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
41,796 two-party votes · R+21.3 · R+19.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.6%
Kamala Harris (D)39.4%
2022
23,545 votes · R+27.7✓ Greg Martin (R)63.9%
Allison Gorman (D)36.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
37,707 votes · R+29.4✓ Robin T Smith (R)64.7%
Joan Farrell (D)35.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
37,737 two-party votes · R+24.9 · R+29.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.5%
Joe Biden (D)37.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
29,755 two-party votes · R+33.4 · R+35.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)33.3%