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Tennessee › Tennessee House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Tennessee House District 30
Helton-Haynes is favored to win: Helton-Haynes wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Rymer (D)
27%
chance of winning
Helton-Haynes (R)
73%
- Average margin
- R+4.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Helton-Haynes is clearly favored to win: Helton-Haynes wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Rymer (D)
17%
chance of winning
Helton-Haynes (R)
83%
- Average margin
- R+9.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Art Rymer
RepublicanIncumbent
Esther Helton-Haynes
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Tennessee state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.57 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 81,967
- People per km²
- 556
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 42%of adults
- White 66%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 13%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
32,609 votes · R+19.4✓ Esther Helton-Haynes (R)59.7%
Heather McClendon (D)40.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
34,121 two-party votes · R+15.4 · R+13.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.7%
Kamala Harris (D)42.3%
2022
13,616 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Esther Helton (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
31,053 votes · R+23.3✓ Esther Helton (R)61.7%
Joseph Udeaja (D)38.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
33,116 two-party votes · R+13.2 · R+17.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.6%
Joe Biden (D)43.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
26,987 two-party votes · R+24.8 · R+27.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.6%