Simple-majority veto override
A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.
Tennessee › Tennessee House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Tennessee House District 13
Stevens is clearly favored to win: Stevens wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Windrow (D)
10%
chance of winning
Stevens (R)
90%
- Average margin
- R+9.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to Even
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Stevens is clearly favored to win: Stevens wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Windrow (D)
6%
chance of winning
Stevens (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+15.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Brett Windrow
RepublicanIncumbent
Robert Stevens
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Tennessee state offices
- −0.7Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.8Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +5.2How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.65 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.04 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.04 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 78,611
- People per km²
- 250
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 61%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 17%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
27,069 votes · R+19.8✓ Robert Stevens (R)59.9%
Jonathan Yancey (D)40.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
31,209 two-party votes · R+22.8 · R+21.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.4%
Kamala Harris (D)38.6%
2022
13,983 votes · R+24.0✓ Robert Stevens (R)62.0%
Jeff Crum (D)38.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
26,906 votes · D+5.9✓ Gloria Johnson (D)52.9%
Elaine Davis (R)47.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
29,685 two-party votes · R+12.7 · R+17.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.4%
Joe Biden (D)43.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
19,250 two-party votes · R+24.6 · R+26.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.7%
Also on the ballot in Tennessee
Neighboring districts
HD-34Owen FarnsworthTim Rudd86%Rep.91%Rep. HD-37Mary Ann YoungCharlie Baum92%Rep.94%Rep. HD-49Connie CashaMike Sparks77%Rep.86%Rep. HD-52Justin JonesMichele Vetter>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-53Jason Powell—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-59Mark ProctorBill Hancock99%Dem.83%Dem. HD-63Laura AndresonJake McCalmon99%Rep.99%Rep. HD-92Teri MaiTodd Warner>99%Rep.>99%Rep.