DemocraticIncumbent
Sean Dougherty
- Experience
- State legislature
Pennsylvania › Pennsylvania House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania House District 172
Dougherty is very likely to win: Dougherty wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Dougherty (D)
95%
chance of winning
Quinlan (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+13.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Dougherty is clearly favored to win: Dougherty wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Dougherty (D)
81%
chance of winning
Quinlan (R)
19%
- Average margin
- D+8.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Wallace J. Quinlan
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Pennsylvania state offices
- +0.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.3Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.63 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.36 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.36 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 68,854
- People per km²
- 3,363
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 43%of adults
- White 56%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 11%
- Asian 17%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
25,176 votes · D+2.0✓ Sean Michael Dougherty (D)51.0%
Aizaz Gill (R)49.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
26,320 two-party votes · R+0.8 · D+0.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.4%
Kamala Harris (D)49.6%
2022
18,648 votes · D+14.0✓ Kevin J Boyle (D)57.0%
Al Taubenberger (R)43.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
26,831 votes · D+22.4✓ Kevin J Boyle (D)61.2%
Haroon Bashir (R)38.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
28,277 two-party votes · D+7.1 · D+2.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.5%
Donald Trump (R)46.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
25,805 two-party votes · D+11.7 · D+9.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.9%
Donald Trump (R)44.1%
Also on the ballot in Pennsylvania
Neighboring districts
HD-152Nancy GuenstEric Maier>99%Dem.99%Dem. HD-153Ben SanchezCory L. Toner>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-154Napoleon Nelson—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-170Robert N. Gurtcheff IIMartina White94%Rep.72%Rep. HD-173Pat GallagherWilliam J. Griffin Jr.99%Dem.92%Dem. HD-174Ed Neilson—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-202Jared Solomon—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-203Anthony A. Bellmon—>99%Dem.>99%Dem.