DemocraticIncumbent
Matt Bradford
- Experience
- State legislature
Pennsylvania › Pennsylvania House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania House District 70
Bradford is very likely to win: Bradford wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bradford (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Martino (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+25.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+16 to D+35
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Bradford is very likely to win: Bradford wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Bradford (D)
98%
chance of winning
Martino (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+22.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+10 to D+35
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Chris Martino
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Pennsylvania state offices
- +0.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.3Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.03 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 7.42 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 7.42 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 64,014
- People per km²
- 504
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 51%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 72%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 12%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
40,837 votes · D+20.3✓ Matthew D Bradford (D)60.2%
Ed Moye (R)39.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
41,441 two-party votes · D+14.6 · D+16.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.3%
Donald Trump (R)42.7%
2022
32,921 votes · D+21.8✓ Matthew D Bradford (D)60.9%
Arthur Craig Bustard (R)39.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
31,208 votes · D+38.3✓ Matthew D Bradford (D)69.1%
Daniel J Wissert (R)30.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
58,954 two-party votes · D+18.3 · D+13.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)59.1%
Donald Trump (R)40.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
48,163 two-party votes · D+11.0 · D+8.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.5%
Donald Trump (R)44.5%