DemocraticIncumbent
Kyle Mullins
- Experience
- State legislature
Pennsylvania › Pennsylvania House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania House District 112
Mullins is very likely to win: Mullins wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Mullins (D)
99%
chance of winning
Sabia (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+20.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+10 to D+32
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Mullins is clearly favored to win: Mullins wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Mullins (D)
84%
chance of winning
Sabia (R)
16%
- Average margin
- D+9.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Joseph Sabia Jr.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Pennsylvania state offices
- +0.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.3Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 3.15 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 40 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 63,206
- People per km²
- 206
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 64%of adults
- White 88%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
26,329 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Kyle James Mullins (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
36,293 two-party votes · D+1.1 · D+2.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.5%
Donald Trump (R)49.5%
2022
28,015 votes · D+28.4✓ Kyle J Mullins (D)64.2%
William Burke Torbeck (R)35.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
32,574 votes · D+30.4✓ Kyle Mullins (D)65.2%
Mary Alice Noldy (R)34.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
50,506 two-party votes · D+6.0 · D+1.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.0%
Donald Trump (R)47.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
41,513 two-party votes · D+2.8 · D+0.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.4%
Donald Trump (R)48.6%