Democratic
Pennsylvania › Pennsylvania House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania House District 15
Kail is very likely to win: Kail wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Speicher (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Kail (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+26.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+36 to R+17
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Kail is very likely to win: Kail wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Speicher (D)
1%
chance of winning
Kail (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+28.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+41 to R+16
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Joshua Kail
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Pennsylvania state offices
- +0.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.3Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.03 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.91 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.91 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 70,070
- People per km²
- 54
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 69%of adults
- White 92%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
35,954 votes · R+37.8✓ Joshua Daniel Kail (R)68.9%
Ashlee Anne Caul (D)31.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
38,598 two-party votes · R+35.0 · R+33.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.5%
Kamala Harris (D)32.5%
2022
22,375 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Joshua Daniel Kail (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
34,648 votes · R+41.7✓ Joshua Daniel Kail (R)70.9%
Robert T Williams Sr (D)29.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
38,680 two-party votes · R+32.2 · R+36.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.1%
Joe Biden (D)33.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
33,210 two-party votes · R+32.2 · R+34.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)33.9%