Democratic
Pennsylvania › Pennsylvania House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania House District 80
Barger is very likely to win: Barger wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Holland (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Barger (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+43.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+53 to R+34
- Partisan lean
- R+54
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Barger is very likely to win: Barger wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Holland (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Barger (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+47.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+60 to R+35
- Partisan lean
- R+54
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Scott Barger
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Pennsylvania state offices
- +0.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.3Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.39 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.83 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.83 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+54: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 67,263
- People per km²
- 52
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 70%of adults
- White 94%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
30,518 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Scott D Barger (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
35,683 two-party votes · R+53.5 · R+52.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)76.7%
Kamala Harris (D)23.3%
2022
28,131 votes · R+61.8✓ James V Gregory (R)80.9%
Kimberly Capenos (D)19.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
30,934 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ James Gregory V (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
34,479 two-party votes · R+53.9 · R+58.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)77.0%
Joe Biden (D)23.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
29,009 two-party votes · R+57.2 · R+59.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)78.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)21.4%