Democratic
Pennsylvania › Pennsylvania House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania House District 102
Diamond is very likely to win: Diamond wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Duvall (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Diamond (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+34.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+45 to R+26
- Partisan lean
- R+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Diamond is very likely to win: Diamond wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Duvall (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Diamond (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+35.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+49 to R+24
- Partisan lean
- R+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Russel Diamond
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Pennsylvania state offices
- +0.8Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+10.3Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- −0.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.27 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -15.06 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -15.06 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+42: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 65,904
- People per km²
- 103
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 71%of adults
- White 89%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
27,886 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Russell H Diamond (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
34,854 two-party votes · R+41.9 · R+40.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.0%
Kamala Harris (D)29.0%
2022
27,312 votes · R+40.2✓ Russell H Diamond (R)70.1%
Susan Laura Quick (D)29.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
33,042 votes · R+40.4✓ Russ Diamond (R)70.2%
Matthew Duvall (D)29.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
36,891 two-party votes · R+43.7 · R+48.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.9%
Joe Biden (D)28.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
28,654 two-party votes · R+48.8 · R+51.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)74.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)25.6%
Also on the ballot in Pennsylvania
Neighboring districts
HD-5Andres Ruben Flammer SantiagoEric Weaknecht99%Rep.98%Rep. HD-37Chad William GleisslMelinda Fee99%Rep.97%Rep. HD-98Hugh Stockton Hyder-DarlingtonNicky Woods97%Rep.96%Rep. HD-99Ethan GabrickDavid Zimmerman>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-101—John Schlegel>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-106Anju SinghThomas MehaffieFlip risk81%Rep.60%Rep. HD-107Ryan T. ColemanJoanne Stehr>99%Rep.>99%Rep. HD-125Kathryn L. WatersJoseph Kerwin99%Rep.97%Rep.